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Edinburgh
Scientists at the University of Edinburgh have identified 70 virus lineages with the potential to become the elusive “Disease X” – a hypothetical pathogen capable of causing the next global pandemic. The research, tracing the evolutionary history of 743 distinct RNA virus species, provides valuable insights into the origins and characteristics of viruses that could pose a significant threat to human populations.
“Disease X” is a term coined by the World Health Organization to represent an unidentified pathogen that could lead to a major global health crisis. The study focuses on RNA viruses, which carry genetic information in RNA and are responsible for various diseases, including COVID-19, the common cold, and measles.
By analyzing the family tree of these viruses, researchers identified distinct lineages that pose the highest risk. The study compared the evolution of strictly zoonotic viruses (transmitted from animals to humans but not between humans) with human-transmissible viruses capable of spreading within human populations.
The findings revealed that viruses with the potential to spread within human populations often evolve separately from strictly zoonotic viruses. The emergence of human-transmissible viruses is associated with related viruses from the same lineage that can already spread between humans. On the other hand, strictly zoonotic viruses, like bird flu, historically have not caused epidemics in human populations.
While acknowledging the possibility of a pandemic resulting from a strictly zoonotic virus or a new pathogen, the research provides a more focused approach to surveillance for Disease X among the vast array of RNA viruses.
Professor Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, emphasized the significance of the findings, stating, “Viruses without the right ancestry don’t seem to cause epidemics. Out of potentially huge numbers of mammal and bird viruses in circulation, we should concentrate on the ones that are related to existing human viruses with epidemic potential. This research narrows the search for the next Disease X enormously.”
The study, funded by the EU Horizon 2020 program and the BBSRC, offers a valuable framework for ongoing pandemic preparedness efforts, guiding vaccine and diagnostic development, and streamlining surveillance for potential threats. The research was published in the journal Molecular Biology and Evolution and involved collaboration with scientists from the Universities of Liverpool and Peking University in China.
