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A rapid real-time analysis by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and Imperial College London estimates that about 570 people in England and Wales are expected to die as a result of high temperatures from Thursday, 19 June, to Sunday, 22 June 2025. This marks the first such analysis of heat-related excess mortality in the UK for 2025.
The study, which uses decades of UK data and high-resolution weather forecasts, predicts that the majority of these deaths will occur among older adults. Specifically, 488 of the estimated excess deaths are expected to be among people aged 65 and over, with 314 of these in the 85+ age group. However, the research also highlights that heat can be life-threatening at all ages, with 82 deaths projected for those under 65.
The heatwave is forecast to peak on Saturday, with temperatures exceeding 32°C and an estimated 266 deaths expected on that day alone. Thursday and Friday are projected to see 114 and 152 deaths, respectively, while Sunday, as temperatures dip to the mid-20s, is expected to see 37 excess deaths.
Regional analysis reveals that London will be hardest hit, with 129 excess deaths, followed by the West Midlands (106) and the Southeast (81). The study also notes that people living in deprived areas are at greater risk due to poorer health, housing, and access to healthcare.
Professor Antonio Gasparrini, lead of the EHM-Lab at LSHTM, emphasized that “increases of just a degree or two can be the difference between life and death,” adding that “every fraction of a degree of warming will cause more hospital admissions and heat deaths, putting more strain on the NHS”. Dr. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis from Imperial College London described heatwaves as “silent killers,” noting that many victims have pre-existing health conditions and that heat is rarely listed as a contributing cause of death.
The researchers warn that the toll could be underestimated, as the analysis does not account for the effect of the heatwave occurring early in summer, before people have acclimatized to hot temperatures. The UK Health Security Agency has issued an amber alert, urging the public to follow heat-health advice and check on vulnerable individuals, especially the elderly and those living alone.
With climate change increasing the likelihood and intensity of heatwaves, experts caution that unless effective mitigation and adaptive measures are implemented, heat-related deaths could rise to over 10,000 per year by 2050 if global temperatures increase by 2°C.
Disclaimer:
The figures and projections presented in this article are based on real-time modeling and statistical analysis by leading UK research institutions. These estimates are subject to change as further data become available and may not reflect the final, confirmed death toll. The analysis does not account for all potential impacts of early-season heatwaves or all possible mitigating measures taken by individuals and authorities. Readers are advised to follow official health guidance during extreme weather events.
