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WASHINGTON – Preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates a marginal increase in U.S. births in 2024, but experts are urging caution against interpreting this as a reversal of the long-term declining fertility trend.
According to the preliminary figures, just over 3.6 million births were reported in 2024. This represents an increase of 22,250 births compared to the final 2023 count, which was released on Tuesday. While the 2024 total is expected to rise slightly once finalized, additional preliminary data reveals that the overall birth rate increase is primarily driven by births among Hispanic women.
The observed rise, less than one percent, is considered by many to be a minor fluctuation within a broader downward trend. “I’d be hesitant to read much into the 2023-24 increase, and certainly not as an indication of a reversal of the trend towards lower or declining U.S. fertility,” stated Hans-Peter Kohler, a University of Pennsylvania sociologist specializing in family demographics. He emphasized the need for further analysis to fully understand the changes in birth patterns.
The U.S. has witnessed a consistent decline in births and birth rates over the past several years. Following the 2008-09 recession, birth rates generally decreased, with a brief uptick in 2014. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 further contributed to a drop in births, followed by a two-year increase attributed to delayed pregnancies. However, a 2% decrease in 2023 resulted in fewer than 3.6 million births, marking the lowest annual tally since 1979.
The recently released 86-page report on 2023 birth data, based on birth certificate reviews, highlights the continued increase in the average age of mothers at first birth, now at 27 1/2 years. This trend reflects women prioritizing education and careers before starting families. Notably, while birth rates have been declining among younger women, they had been rising among women in their 30s and 40s. However, 2023 saw a decline in birth rates across nearly all age groups, including women in their early 40s.
Preliminary 2024 data shows a continued decrease in birth rates among teenagers and women in their early 20s. However, increases were observed among women in their late 20s, predominantly due to a rise in births to Hispanic women. Increases were also seen for women in their 30s, driven by rises among Hispanic and white women, and for women in their 40s, due to rises among white women.
© 2025 The Associated Press.
Disclaimer: The information presented in this article is based on preliminary data and expert opinions available at the time of publication. Future revisions to the data or evolving expert analysis may alter the conclusions presented. Readers should consider this information as part of a broader understanding of demographic trends and consult with relevant experts for personalized advice.
