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A groundbreaking study led by the Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) and the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) has shed light on the true impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on mortality rates. Contrary to previous assumptions, excess mortality rates from chronic illnesses and other natural causes were found to be significantly influenced by uncounted Covid-19 deaths.
Published in the prestigious journal PNAS, the study compared reported Covid-19 deaths to excess deaths attributed to non-Covid natural causes, such as diseases and chronic illnesses. The findings revealed a striking temporal correlation, with increases in non-Covid excess deaths occurring concurrently or preceding reported Covid deaths in most US counties.
Dr. Andrew Stokes, Associate Professor of global health at BUSPH, emphasized the implications of these findings, stating, “Our findings show that many Covid-19 deaths went uncounted during the pandemic. Surprisingly, these undercounts persisted well beyond the initial phase of the pandemic.” This underscores the need for a more comprehensive approach to assessing the true toll of the virus.
The study’s focus on excess deaths from natural causes, excluding external factors like injuries, provides a clearer understanding of the direct impact of Covid-19 on mortality rates. Lead author Eugenio Paglino, a doctoral student studying demography and sociology at UPenn, highlighted the significance of the observed temporal pattern: “We observed peaks in non-Covid-19 excess deaths in the same or prior month as Covid-19 deaths, a pattern consistent with these being unrecognized Covid-19 deaths that were missed due to low community awareness and a lack of Covid-19 testing.”
These findings challenge previous assumptions that excess mortality rates were primarily driven by disruptions in healthcare services or socioeconomic challenges. Paglino noted that if healthcare interruptions were the primary explanation, non-Covid excess deaths would likely occur after a peak in reported Covid-19 deaths. However, this pattern was not observed nationally or in any assessed geographic subregions.
The study’s revelations underscore the importance of accurate and comprehensive data collection during public health crises. By acknowledging the full extent of Covid-19’s impact on mortality rates, policymakers and healthcare professionals can better allocate resources and implement strategies to mitigate the ongoing effects of the pandemic.
