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In a groundbreaking study published on Friday in the journal Science, researchers have provided compelling evidence that human activities have significantly increased global rainfall variability over the past century. The research was conducted by scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the UK Met Office.
The study highlights a systematic increase in rainfall variability from the 1900s to the present, observed at both global and regional scales and across various timescales, ranging from daily to intraseasonal periods. Rainfall variability refers to the irregular distribution of rainfall over time, which can lead to more pronounced wet and dry periods. This phenomenon results in extreme weather patterns such as receiving a year’s worth of rain in a few days, experiencing prolonged dry spells followed by intense downpours, or rapidly alternating between drought and flooding, as reported by Xinhua news agency.
Through comprehensive analysis of a vast array of observational data, the researchers determined that rainfall variability has increased in approximately 75 percent of the land areas studied since the 1900s. Notable increases were observed in Europe, Australia, and eastern North America. Additionally, the study found that daily global rainfall variability has risen by 1.2 percent per decade.
The research team employed an optimal fingerprinting detection and attribution method to pinpoint the primary drivers of this increased variability. They identified anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions as the dominant factor. “The increase in rainfall variability is mainly due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, which have led to a warmer and more humid atmosphere,” explained Zhang Wenxia, lead author of the study and an associate professor at the IAP. Zhang noted that even if atmospheric circulation patterns remain unchanged, the added moisture in the air intensifies rain events and causes more extreme fluctuations between them.
The study underscores the broader implications of these findings, emphasizing the challenges posed by the rapid and wide swings between climate extremes. Such volatility not only strains modern weather and climate prediction systems but also poses significant threats to human society. Wu Peili, a scientist at the UK Met Office and co-author of the study, pointed out that these climate extremes compromise the resilience of infrastructure, economic development, ecosystem functioning, and terrestrial carbon sinks.
“Immediate adaptation measures are essential to address these challenges,” Wu urged, highlighting the need for proactive strategies to mitigate the impacts of increased rainfall variability on global communities.
This study serves as a crucial reminder of the far-reaching consequences of human-induced climate change, reinforcing the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing adaptive measures to safeguard the planet’s future.
