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January 30, 2025 — Ochsner Health
Stroke remains a significant global health challenge, ranking second in worldwide mortality and fifth in deaths in the United States. However, researchers at Ochsner Health have developed an innovative predictive model that may dramatically improve stroke care, offering new hope to patients undergoing urgent carotid interventions.
Led by Hernan Bazan, MD, DFSVS, FACS, the team at Ochsner Health has created a model with an impressive 93% accuracy rate in predicting whether stroke patients requiring urgent carotid surgery will regain functional independence. The study, titled Precision in Stroke Care: A Novel Model for Predicting Functional Independence in Urgent Carotid Intervention Patients, was recently published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons.
This cutting-edge model utilizes a data-driven approach, integrating four key clinical metrics: stroke severity, frailty risk score, timing of intervention, and the use of thrombolysis. The result is a real-time decision-making tool that enhances physicians’ ability to make informed treatment decisions. By leveraging these variables, the model allows for more tailored treatment plans, optimized intervention timing, and ensures that only the most appropriate candidates undergo complex procedures like carotid surgery.
“We are entering a new era of stroke care where data-driven insights guide every decision,” said Dr. Bazan, senior author of the study and the John Ochsner Professor of Cardiovascular Innovation at Ochsner Health. “By integrating a real-time frailty risk score into the electronic medical record (EMR) alongside stroke severity and other critical factors, we can proactively determine which patients will benefit from immediate surgery and which may need ‘pre-habilitation’ before surgery to achieve the best possible outcomes.”
This groundbreaking tool also aligns with the 2025 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) initiatives, including value-based care and age-friendly health system measures, reinforcing Ochsner Health’s mission to provide improved outcomes and high-quality care for all patients.
“Integrating this predictive model into everyday clinical workflows enables our healthcare teams to anticipate patient outcomes with greater precision,” explained Leo Seoane, MD, executive vice president and chief academic officer at Ochsner Health. “This allows us to design more refined, patient-centered care strategies that enhance both short-term recovery and long-term quality of life.”
The new model’s ability to reliably predict recovery potential empowers physicians to make more confident treatment decisions, ensuring patients receive the care best suited to their individual needs.
For more information, you can access the full study in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons at DOI: 10.1097/XCS.0000000000001276.
Disclaimer: The findings and predictions made by this model are based on current data and clinical information and may not apply to all patients. Decisions should always be made in consultation with a healthcare professional.
