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For more than a century, steady improvements in life expectancy fueled hopes that humans would one day routinely live past the age of 100. However, a new analysis, published in Nature Aging, challenges this optimism, suggesting that the peak of human longevity may fall well below the centenarian milestone. The findings indicate that the average woman is likely to live to around 90 years, while men may live just under 85 years.
The research draws on data from the U.S., Hong Kong, and eight other nations known for their long lifespans—Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. Currently, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that the average life expectancy in the U.S. is 80 years for women and 75 years for men.
“Most people alive today at older ages are living on time that was manufactured by medicine,” explained lead author Dr. S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois Chicago. “But these medical Band-Aids are producing fewer years of life even though they’re occurring at an accelerated pace, implying that the period of rapid increases in life expectancy is now documented to be over.”
The Limits of Longevity
The new analysis reveals that the probability of reaching 100 is small—5% for women and just under 2% for men. Hong Kong leads the world in centenarian likelihood, with nearly 13% of women and over 4% of men projected to live to 100 years.
Despite the potential for breakthroughs in medicine or science, the study authors caution that such advances would have to address the fundamental processes of aging itself to reverse the current deceleration in life expectancy gains. Dr. Olshansky noted that extending life further could even be detrimental if those additional years are spent in poor health.
“We should now shift our focus to efforts that slow aging and extend healthspan,” he suggested. In other words, rather than pursuing longer life at any cost, society should aim to increase the number of healthy, active years people experience.
Implications for Society and Industry
The study’s findings have broad implications for sectors such as insurance and financial planning. Actuarial firms tasked with forecasting life expectancy need to reassess their models, particularly when estimating future mortality rates and insurance payouts. The researchers highlighted that insurers would need to adjust their policies and calculations based on this updated understanding of human longevity.
“Humanity’s battle for a long life has largely been accomplished,” the authors wrote. But they also emphasized that the future of longevity might look very different, with rapid advances in geroscience offering hope for a “second longevity revolution.”
Although radical life extension remains improbable in this century, ongoing research into slowing biological aging holds promise. Until breakthroughs occur, however, the researchers advise against expecting significant gains in life expectancy within already long-lived populations.
Conclusion
The study’s message is clear: while modern medicine has extended human life, the era of rapid longevity gains is likely over. The challenge now lies in enhancing healthspan—the period of life spent in good health—rather than simply adding more years. This shift in focus could help redefine what successful aging means, prioritizing quality of life over mere longevity.
