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Over the 19th and 20th centuries, life expectancy nearly doubled, thanks to improved diets, public health measures, and medical breakthroughs. However, a new study from the University of Illinois Chicago reveals that this trend has slowed significantly in the last three decades, signaling that we may be approaching a biological limit to human longevity.
Published in Nature Aging, the study, titled “Implausibility of Radical Life Extension in Humans in the 21st Century,” highlights that life expectancy at birth in the world’s longest-living populations has increased by only six and a half years on average since 1990. Despite frequent medical advances, this rate of improvement has fallen short of earlier predictions that life expectancy would continue to rise at an accelerated pace, with many expecting people born today to live beyond 100 years. However, the research suggests that such radical extensions of life are increasingly unlikely.
S. Jay Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at UIC’s School of Public Health and lead author of the study, explains that much of the progress made over the last century was due to the successful fight against diseases. “Most people alive today at older ages are living on time that was manufactured by medicine,” Olshansky said. However, the advancements in medicine are yielding fewer extra years of life, despite occurring at an accelerated pace. This indicates that the rapid increase in life expectancy witnessed during the 20th century has likely come to an end.
One key point raised in the study is that extending life expectancy further by merely reducing disease could be harmful if those additional years are not healthy. Olshansky emphasizes that the focus should now shift from extending lifespan to extending “healthspan,” a metric that measures the number of healthy years a person lives rather than just their total lifespan.
The analysis, which included data from eight of the world’s longest-living countries, Hong Kong, and the United States, shows that the detrimental effects of aging are increasingly becoming the primary barrier to further increases in life expectancy. The United States, in particular, has seen a decrease in life expectancy during the period studied, making it one of the few countries to experience such a trend.
Olshansky’s earlier research, published in 1990, argued that human life expectancy was nearing a ceiling of around 85 years, with the most significant gains already achieved. This latest study provides further evidence supporting that view, with data showing that the pace of life expectancy improvement is continuing to slow as populations face the unavoidable effects of aging.
For many industries, including insurance and wealth management, this research challenges assumptions that most people will live to be 100. Olshansky warns that these industries are providing “profoundly bad advice,” as only a small percentage of the population is likely to reach that age in this century.
The study does not dismiss the potential for medicine to further improve life quality. Olshansky advocates for greater investment in geroscience, the study of aging, as it holds promise for the next wave of health and life extension. By slowing the biological processes of aging, we can potentially improve health outcomes and increase the years people live in good health.
“This is a glass ceiling, not a brick wall,” Olshansky concluded. “With efforts to reduce risk factors, eliminate health disparities, and promote healthier lifestyles, we can push through this glass ceiling and achieve improvements in both health and longevity.”
The study underscores the importance of shifting focus from merely extending lifespan to enhancing the quality of life in older ages, a move that could have profound implications for public health and aging populations worldwide.
