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A groundbreaking study released Monday has revealed that by 2060, approximately one million Americans each year are expected to develop dementia—a number that’s roughly double the current rate. This research, published in Nature Medicine, highlights an alarming lifetime risk of dementia, particularly after the age of 55, with individuals having up to a 40% chance of developing the condition if they live long enough.
The study, led by Dr. Josef Coresh of NYU Langone Health, uncovers a higher lifetime risk than previously anticipated. The findings suggest that dementia, while primarily associated with aging, is not an inevitable part of growing older. Rather, it represents a progressive loss of cognitive abilities such as memory and language, which can be mitigated with proactive health measures.
“We’ve found that midlife health choices really matter,” said Dr. Coresh, stressing the importance of controlling risk factors such as high blood pressure and other conditions that harm the brain.
The Types of Dementia
While Alzheimer’s disease is the most common form of dementia, it’s not the only one. Silent brain changes that lead to Alzheimer’s can start two decades before symptoms appear. Vascular dementia, caused by impaired blood flow due to heart disease or small strokes, is another common type. Many individuals experience a mix of both, as vascular issues can worsen Alzheimer’s symptoms.
It’s important to note that dementia risk fluctuates throughout life. The study indicates that only 4% of individuals between the ages of 55 and 75 develop dementia. However, for those who survive common health risks into their 70s, the risk increases significantly. By age 85, the risk of dementia rises to 20%, and it jumps to 42% between the ages of 85 and 95.
Lifetime Dementia Risk and Demographics
Overall, the study found that the lifetime risk of dementia after age 55 is 35% for men and 48% for women. The gender gap exists largely due to women’s longer life expectancy. The study also observed that Black Americans have a slightly higher risk of dementia, at 44%, compared to white Americans, at 41%.
What You Can Do to Lower Your Risk
While some risk factors for dementia—such as age and genetic predispositions like the APOE4 gene—are beyond one’s control, there are several lifestyle changes that can help delay or prevent the onset of dementia.
Dr. Coresh suggests wearing protective gear during activities that risk head injury, such as biking, as head trauma can significantly increase the chances of developing dementia later in life. Another key factor in reducing dementia risk is maintaining heart health. “What’s good for your heart is good for your brain,” said Dr. James Galvin, an Alzheimer’s expert from the University of Miami, who co-authored the study.
Managing conditions such as high blood pressure, diabetes, and high cholesterol is crucial. For instance, poorly controlled blood pressure can impair blood flow to the brain, heightening the risk for both vascular dementia and Alzheimer’s. Similarly, high blood sugar levels associated with diabetes can contribute to cognitive decline and brain inflammation.
Dr. Galvin also encourages individuals to stay socially and mentally active, noting that hearing loss can lead to social isolation, which can further contribute to cognitive decline. For those experiencing hearing difficulties, he recommends trying hearing aids to stay connected.
A Call for Action
The findings of this study serve as a call to action, emphasizing the importance of early intervention and maintaining a healthy lifestyle throughout life. While there is no guaranteed way to prevent dementia, taking steps to protect heart health and staying mentally and socially engaged can significantly lower the risk.
The study’s authors urge continued research into dementia prevention, as well as public health strategies aimed at reducing risk factors among the aging population. With an increasingly elderly population, it is more important than ever to focus on strategies that can help mitigate the growing dementia burden in the coming decades.
For more information, the study is available in Nature Medicine under the title “Lifetime Risk and Projected Burden of Dementia” by Michael Fang et al. (2025).
