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In October, at the World Dairy Expo in Wisconsin, livestock veterinarian Keith Poulsen was shocked by what he saw. Farmers showed him videos of desperate efforts to save cows infected with the bird flu, using makeshift systems to pump fluids into hundreds of sick cows. “It was like watching a field hospital on an active battlefront,” he said.
This was a year into the bird flu outbreak that was affecting cattle, a virus initially thought to impact only poultry. What seemed like a localized problem in a few states has now spiraled out of control. With 845 herds in 16 states testing positive, experts warn that the U.S. government’s delayed response may have set the stage for a public health disaster.
Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan, bluntly described the situation: “We are in a terrible situation and going into a worse situation. I don’t know if the bird flu will become a pandemic, but if it does, we are screwed.”
In a joint investigation by KFF Health News, nearly 70 experts, including government officials, researchers, farmers, and veterinarians, revealed how systemic failures—slow federal response, inadequate surveillance, and lack of coordination between state and federal agencies—have allowed the bird flu to spread unchecked. Critical issues such as deferring to the farm industry, shrinking public health budgets, and neglecting agriculture workers’ safety were uncovered.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently announced a nationwide testing order for milk—months too late, say experts. “It’s disheartening to see so many of the same failures that emerged during the COVID-19 crisis reemerge,” said Tom Bollyky, director of the Global Health Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The cost of this inaction is already steep, with more than $1.7 billion spent since 2022 on controlling the outbreak in poultry, and over $430 million allocated for dairy farm efforts. Experts predict billions more in expenses and losses. Dairy cows are dying at an alarming rate—between 2% and 5% of infected animals—while milk production has dropped by as much as 20%. Worse still, the outbreak poses a potential pandemic risk, with over 60 human cases already recorded. Experts fear that mutations of the virus could lead to efficient human-to-human transmission, setting the stage for another global health crisis.
A Missed Opportunity for Swift Action
The bird flu, which evolved to affect dairy cattle, first showed up in Texas in February. However, it wasn’t until March 25 that the USDA officially announced the outbreak. In the weeks that followed, local and state agencies struggled to coordinate efforts. Farmers, fearing that the government might shut down their milk sales or require the culling of their herds, were hesitant to cooperate.
Veterinarians, too, grew frustrated by the USDA’s inaction. “The biggest mistake from the USDA was not involving the boots-on-the-ground veterinarians,” said Kay Russo, a livestock veterinarian in Colorado. By the time the government implemented a plan to test dairy cattle, the virus had spread to several other states.
Farmers’ reluctance to test their herds—often due to fears of losing market access—only exacerbated the problem. The USDA didn’t mandate testing before interstate travel until late April, allowing the virus to spread undetected.
A Disjointed Response and Worker Neglect
As the bird flu spread to poultry farms, thousands of immigrant workers, many of them Spanish-speaking, were hired to cull infected flocks. Many of these workers, who faced dangerous working conditions and lacked protective gear, became infected. Yet, health departments struggled to track these cases, with many workers reluctant to seek medical help due to fears of losing their jobs.
In rural areas, where the virus had a significant impact, local health departments struggled to get proper outreach funds, making it difficult to provide testing and support for agriculture workers. “The cows are more valuable than us,” one worker said, reflecting the broader disregard for worker safety.
The USDA has spent over $2 billion to compensate farmers for losses and bolster control measures, but farmworker safety remains a low priority. Federal agencies have yet to provide adequate support for workers who face exposure daily, with the CDC still resisting calls to offer vaccines to those most at risk. “If you want to keep this from becoming a human pandemic, you focus on protecting farmworkers,” said Peg Seminario, an occupational health researcher.
The Rising Threat of a Pandemic
As winter sets in and flu season overlaps, the virus’s spread becomes even harder to track. Experts are worried that the bird flu could mutate into a form capable of human-to-human transmission, potentially creating a hybrid virus. This would increase the threat to public health significantly. Virologist Tom Peacock warned, “Even if there’s only a 5% chance of a bird flu pandemic happening, we’re talking about a pandemic that probably looks like 2020 or worse.”
Despite these concerns, federal agencies have continued to downplay the risk, and their actions remain slow and insufficient. Public health experts argue that the U.S. needs to dramatically increase surveillance both on farms and in communities where farmworkers live. Testing for bird flu should be made widely available, and protective measures for workers must be implemented immediately.
The Road Ahead
The slow pace of action has left the U.S. in a precarious position. Experts urge the government to step up its efforts, particularly in protecting farmworkers, who are the most likely vector for the virus to spread to the wider population. With the outbreak still spiraling, experts like Jennifer Nuzzo of Brown University stress that curbing the virus on farms is critical to preventing a larger disaster.
“We have to be proactive,” she said. “The alternative is to wait for the damage to happen and then react—but by then it may be too late.”
The rise of cases not linked to farms signals that the outbreak is already outpacing the nation’s ability to control it. Public health leaders fear that the lack of a coordinated, urgent response will lead to an even more devastating situation.
As we approach the new year, the question remains: Will the U.S. learn from its mistakes, or will the bird flu become another example of a public health crisis ignored until it’s too late? Time will tell, but the risks of inaction are too high to ignore.
