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April 30, 2025 – A groundbreaking international study has found that raising cigarette taxes in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) could significantly reduce child mortality, especially among the poorest families. The research, led by scientists at Sweden’s Karolinska Institutet and published in The Lancet Public Health, analyzed data from 94 LMICs and highlights the powerful impact of tobacco taxation on childhood survival rates.
Key Findings: Saving Lives and Reducing Inequality
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that at least 75% of the retail price of cigarettes should come from taxes. However, most countries fall short of this target. According to the study, if all 94 countries had implemented the WHO-recommended tax level, over 280,000 children’s lives could have been saved in just one year.
Principal investigator Márta Radó explained, “Not only that, it would narrow the socioeconomic gap in child mortality rates in line with the UN’s sustainable development goals.” The study found that higher cigarette taxes benefit all income groups, but have the most pronounced effect among the poorest, helping to close the gap in child survival rates.
How the Study Was Conducted
Researchers used publicly available data from the WHO, World Bank, and UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, covering the years 2008 to 2020. They examined the relationship between various types of cigarette taxes-including excise duties, ad valorem taxes, import duties, and VAT-and under-five mortality rates across different socioeconomic groups.
Excise duties (a fixed tax per cigarette pack) were found to be particularly effective in reducing child mortality.
Policy Implications and Industry Resistance
Lead author Olivia Bannon emphasized the urgent need for policy action: “An increase in cigarette tax is a vital policy measure that can improve the health of children worldwide, especially in the most vulnerable groups.”
However, the researchers also noted significant obstacles, including resistance from the tobacco industry. “The tobacco industry has a number of well-established tactics to undermine, disrupt, and delay the implementation of effective tobacco control measures globally, including increasing taxation,” said Dr. Radó. “Our study provides compelling evidence for governments to overcome tobacco industry interference and other obstacles to implement higher taxes on tobacco in LMICs.”
The research was conducted in collaboration with experts from Erasmus MC (the Netherlands), McGill University (Canada), and Imperial College London (UK).
Reference
Bannon, O.S., Radó, M., et al. (2025). Cigarette taxation and socioeconomic inequalities in under-five mortality across 94 low- and middle-income countries. The Lancet Public Health. DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(25)00065-9
Disclaimer:
This article summarizes findings from a peer-reviewed scientific study. It is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as medical or policy advice. For personal health concerns or policy decisions, always consult qualified professionals or official guidelines.
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