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The global diagnosed prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is expected to rise from 2 million in 2023 to 2.18 million by 2033, reflecting an annual growth rate (AGR) of 0.90%, according to a report released on Friday by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
The report highlights that this increase will predominantly occur in seven major countries: the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Japan. Among these, the United States is projected to bear the highest burden, with approximately 1.46 million diagnosed cases by 2033. Conversely, Japan is expected to record the fewest diagnosed cases, with around 34,400 cases.
Factors Driving the Increase
Casey Freimuth, Senior Epidemiologist at GlobalData, attributes the rising prevalence of diagnosed HIV cases to several factors:
- Improved HIV diagnosis rates due to expanded testing.
- Increased life expectancy of individuals living with HIV, thanks to advances in antiretroviral treatment (ART).
- Population growth and demographic changes in the affected countries.
“These factors combined are contributing to a steady rise in diagnosed HIV cases,” Freimuth noted.
Tools and Strategies to Mitigate HIV Prevalence
The report underscores the importance of existing tools such as ART, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) in controlling the spread of HIV.
PrEP, which has been recently approved in the U.S. and five European countries, is a preventive medication designed to reduce the risk of HIV transmission. However, it is yet to gain approval in Japan.
“Future efforts to reduce the burden of HIV should involve increased attention on reducing transmission, either through PrEP or the use of ART, alongside education and greater access to testing,” Freimuth suggested.
Breakthrough in HIV Treatment
The report also highlighted a significant advancement in HIV treatment with the recent approval of lenacapavir by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Developed by Gilead Sciences, this innovative medication offers a unique mechanism of action, involving biannual injections to treat individuals with multidrug-resistant HIV.
Lenacapavir is seen as a promising addition to the arsenal of HIV treatments, particularly for individuals who have exhausted other therapeutic options.
Outlook
Despite the expected increase in diagnosed prevalence, health experts remain optimistic that advancements in medical technology, education, and public health policies will continue to improve the quality of life for individuals living with HIV and curb its spread.
Efforts to expand access to testing, treatment, and preventive measures, especially in underrepresented regions like Japan, will be crucial in managing the global burden of HIV over the next decade.
