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Sydney, Australia – A new study by Australian researchers has delivered a stark warning: a 4-degree Celsius increase in global temperatures could trigger a catastrophic 40% decline in the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2100. This dramatically revises previous estimates, which placed the potential GDP loss at around 11%.
The groundbreaking research, conducted by the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Institute for Climate Risk and Response (ICRR), published in the journal Environmental Research, highlights a critical oversight in current economic models used to inform global climate policy. Researchers argue that these models fail to adequately account for the cascading effects of climate change on global supply chains.
“Economists have traditionally looked at historical data comparing weather events to economic growth to cost climate damages,” explained lead researcher Dr. Timothy Neal, a ‘Scientia Senior Lecturer’ in the School of Economics and also the ICRR. “What they fail to account for are interruptions to the global supply chains currently buffering economic shocks. In a hotter future, we can expect cascading supply chain disruptions triggered by extreme weather events worldwide.”
The study’s findings indicate that the economic rationale for aggressive climate action is far stronger than previously understood. According to the analysis, limiting global warming to 1.7 degrees Celsius, consistent with the Paris Agreement’s more ambitious goals, is crucial. This contrasts sharply with the 2.7-degree Celsius target supported by older, less comprehensive models.
Dr. Neal stressed the significant implications of these findings for climate policy, stating, “Because these damages haven’t been taken into account, prior economic models have inadvertently concluded that even severe climate change wasn’t a big problem for the economy – and it’s had profound implications for climate policy.”
The researchers also debunked the notion that some nations, particularly those in colder climates like Russia and Canada, might benefit from climate change. “There’s an assumption that some colder countries, like Russia or Canada, will benefit from climate change, but supply chain dependencies mean no country is immune,” Dr. Neal emphasized.
However, the study acknowledges limitations. “His research doesn’t account for climate adaptation, like human migration, which is politically and logistically complex and not yet fully modelled”, said the study. Future research will need to address these complexities to provide a more complete picture of the economic impacts of climate change.
Disclaimer: This news article is based on information provided by the referenced study. It is important to note that climate models and economic projections are subject to uncertainties and may evolve as new data and methodologies become available. This article should not be considered definitive economic or climate advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with experts and refer to multiple sources for a comprehensive understanding of the complex issues discussed.(https://english.gujaratsamachar.com/news/science-technology/4-degree-celsius-rise-in-global-temperatures-may-cut-world-gdp-by-40-pc-study)
