Global Decline in Cancer and Heart Disease Deaths Masks Slowing Progress and Unequal Gains, Study Finds

A landmark global analysis published on September 10, 2025, in The Lancet reveals that deaths from major chronic diseases such as cancer, heart disease, and stroke declined in four out of five countries worldwide during the decade before the COVID-19 pandemic (2010-2019). However, despite this encouraging overall trend, the pace of improvement has slowed notably compared to the previous decade, with nearly 60 percent of countries showing a slowdown or even reversal in reductions of chronic disease mortality. These findings come from the most comprehensive assessment to date of national progress against non-communicable diseases (NCDs), conducted by researchers from Imperial College London in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) and published alongside the upcoming UN General Assembly’s Fourth High Level Meeting on NCDs.

Key Findings and Regional Differences

The study analyzed data from 185 countries and territories, including more detailed cause-specific mortality data from 63 countries with high-quality death registry systems. Between 2010 and 2019, the risk of dying from chronic diseases before age 80 decreased in 82 percent of countries for women and in 79 percent for men. Cardiovascular diseases (heart attacks, strokes) contributed the greatest share of mortality decline, alongside significant reductions in deaths from multiple cancers such as stomach, colorectal, cervical, breast, lung, and prostate cancers.

Despite this progress, the report highlights concerning regional disparities and emerging setbacks. High-income countries in Europe, North America, and the Pacific largely maintained declines but witnessed a reduction in the rate of progress. For example, South Korea set a benchmark for East Asia with the lowest chronic disease mortality risk globally for women in 2019, showing continued improvement albeit at a slower pace than before. Conversely, countries like the United States and Germany experienced some of the smallest declines, with the U.S. showing near stagnation, particularly among women and adults aged 20 to 45, where chronic disease mortality rates even increased slightly.

In lower and middle-income regions, the picture is mixed. China showed similar improvements to its East Asian neighbors, including a notable reduction in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) deaths linked to smoking and air pollution. However, India experienced a troubling rise in chronic disease deaths, especially among women, driven primarily by increases in heart disease and diabetes mortality. Other countries in Latin America, the Caribbean, Africa, and South Asia faced either stalled progress or reversals in mortality trends for chronic diseases.

Expert Perspectives and Context

Professor Majid Ezzati, senior author and professor of public health at Imperial College London, emphasized the dual nature of the findings: “While the overall global decline in chronic disease mortality is a success story, the slowing and reversal in many countries show a critical need to reinvigorate efforts around preventive healthcare, early diagnosis, and equitable treatment access”. He noted that despite decades of effective strategies such as tobacco control, hypertension management, cancer screening, and heart attack treatments, many people still lack access to essential care and medications.

Leanne Riley, Unit Head of Surveillance at WHO and co-author of the study, highlighted the complexity of the global burden, stating, “Encouraging progress is evident in some diseases and regions, but the overall burden remains unacceptably high. We must accelerate efforts with effective policies and equitable healthcare to sustain and increase these gains”.

Implications for Public Health

This report underscores the urgency for nations to renew and expand their public health strategies to combat NCDs, which remain the leading causes of global mortality. Key interventions include wider implementation of prevention measures (such as tobacco and alcohol control policies), universal access to early screening programs for cancers and cardiovascular risks, and enhancing the availability of medicines for conditions like diabetes, hypertension, and high cholesterol.

The stagnation and even regression seen in many countries might be partly attributed to socioeconomic factors, including reduced health funding following the 2008 global recession, rising poverty, and unequal healthcare access. Additionally, the increase in deaths from dementia, neuropsychiatric disorders, and some cancers like pancreatic and liver cancer has offset some of the gains made against other chronic conditions.

For individuals, maintaining a healthy lifestyle—which includes not smoking, controlling blood pressure and blood sugar, eating healthily, exercising regularly, and seeking timely medical care—remains critical in reducing their personal risk of chronic diseases.

Limitations and Balanced Reporting

The authors of the study caution that data variability and gaps, especially in low-income countries and some regions like the Pacific Islands and parts of Africa and South Asia, may affect the certainty of some trends. Less than one-third of countries have complete death registration, making estimates for some areas less reliable. The influence of year-to-year variations in mortality rates and smaller population sizes also complicates definitive conclusions.

Moreover, while overall progress against cancer and cardiovascular deaths is clear, the rise of other chronic conditions, particularly dementia and neuropsychiatric disorders linked to aging populations and behavioral health, poses new challenges that require tailored approaches.

Conclusion

The global decline in deaths from cancer, heart disease, and related chronic diseases over the past decade affirms the success of public health interventions and medical advances. Yet the slowing pace of this decline and the uneven progress across regions, highlighted in this landmark Lancet study, signal a pressing need for renewed commitment. Sustainable gains in reducing chronic disease mortality will depend on equitable access to prevention, early detection, and treatment, alongside addressing social determinants of health.

As policymakers convene at the United Nations General Assembly this month to discuss non-communicable disease strategies, these findings provide a crucial evidence base to drive stronger, more inclusive health policies globally.

Medical Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered medical advice. Always consult with qualified healthcare professionals before making any health-related decisions or changes to your treatment plan. The information presented here is based on current research and expert opinions, which may evolve as new evidence emerges.

References