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January 2025
In a harrowing new report published by The Lancet, life expectancy in the Gaza Strip has plummeted by nearly 50% since the onset of the current conflict in October 2023. The study, led by Professor Michel Guillot from the University of Pennsylvania, reveals a stark decline in life expectancy, with estimates showing a drop from 75.5 years pre-war to just 40.5 years during the period from October 2023 to September 2024. This devastating reduction reflects the severe toll the ongoing war has taken on Gaza’s population.
The research highlights an even more alarming disparity between men and women, with life expectancy for men plummeting by 51.6%, from 73.6 years pre-war to just 35.6 years. Women, while also affected, saw a less drastic decrease of 38.6%, dropping from 77.4 years to 47.5 years.
The study presents three life expectancy scenarios based on different assumptions about the war’s impact:
- Central Scenario: Based on the official count of fatalities from the Gaza Ministry of Health, this scenario estimates life expectancy during the conflict at 40.5 years, excluding missing persons or those buried under rubble.
- Low Scenario: This estimate, using only deaths for which complete identifying information was available, projects a life expectancy of 44.4 years.
- High Scenario: By including a lower bound estimate of missing persons, this scenario estimates life expectancy at 36.1 years.
Despite the varying estimates, all scenarios indicate a dramatic decline in life expectancy due to the conflict. The study also notes that the official count may still be an underestimation, as it excludes missing persons and does not account for the broader indirect effects of war—such as restricted access to healthcare, malnutrition, and the destruction of critical infrastructure—which also contribute to mortality rates.
Professor Guillot and his team stress the limitations of their study, pointing out that none of the estimates include the indirect effects of the war. As these factors are significant, they caution that the true impact on life expectancy could be even worse than the current estimates suggest.
The findings of this study underline the devastating impact of the war on Gaza’s population and emphasize the urgent need for international attention to address the humanitarian crisis. As the conflict continues, millions of lives hang in the balance.
Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on data and estimates published in The Lancet. The numbers presented are estimates and may vary due to ongoing developments in the conflict. For further information, refer to the original study: Guillot, M., et al. (2025) Life expectancy losses in the Gaza Strip during the period October, 2023, to September, 2024. The Lancet. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(24)02810-1.
