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July 21, 2024 – Recent media reports have drawn attention to a controversial study published in the journal Science Advances, which claims that excess mortality in India during 2020 was significantly higher than previously estimated. According to the study, there were 11.9 lakh (1.19 million) excess deaths in 2020 compared to 2019. However, these figures have been met with strong criticism from experts who argue that the study’s methodology is flawed and its conclusions are misleading.
Flawed Methodology and Overestimation
The study in question analyzed data from a subset of households included in the National Family Health Survey-5 (NFHS-5) conducted between January and April 2021. The researchers compared mortality in these households in 2020 with that in 2019 and extrapolated their findings to the entire country. Critics point out that the NFHS sample is only representative when considered in its entirety. The analysis, which included just 23% of households from 14 states, cannot be deemed representative of the entire country.
Furthermore, the timing of data collection during the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic may have introduced selection and reporting biases. The study’s claim that India’s vital registration system is weak has also been contested. India’s Civil Registration System (CRS) is robust, capturing over 99% of deaths in 2020, up from 75% in 2015. Data from the CRS indicates an increase of 4.74 lakh in death registrations in 2020 compared to 2019, which is consistent with previous years’ trends and not solely attributable to the pandemic.
Discrepancies with Established Mortality Patterns
The study’s findings are further undermined by discrepancies with established Covid-19 mortality patterns. While the paper claims higher excess mortality among females and younger age groups, data on recorded Covid-19 deaths in India consistently shows higher mortality in males and older age groups. Research from cohorts and registries supports this, indicating a significantly higher death rate among males (2:1) and older individuals.
Robust Data from Sample Registration System (SRS)
India’s Sample Registration System (SRS), covering a population of 84 lakh across 24 lakh households in 8,842 sample units nationwide, provides more reliable data. SRS data for 2020 shows little to no excess mortality compared to 2019, with a crude death rate of 6.0 per 1,000 in both years. This contrasts sharply with the overestimation presented in the Science Advances study.
Conclusion
The assertion of 11.9 lakh excess deaths in 2020 as reported by the Science Advances study is a gross overestimate. The methodological flaws, selection biases, and inconsistencies with established data and patterns call into question the study’s validity. Robust data from India’s CRS and SRS indicates that all-cause excess mortality in 2020 was significantly lower, reflecting the need for accurate and reliable data analysis during the pandemic.
As the debate continues, it is crucial to rely on comprehensive and representative data to understand the true impact of Covid-19 on mortality rates in India. Misleading studies not only distort the reality but also undermine the efforts to accurately assess and address the pandemic’s effects.
