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A recent study published in The Lancet Public Health highlights the significant public health benefits of reducing tobacco smoking globally, suggesting that achieving a smoking prevalence of just 5% could increase life expectancy and prevent millions of premature deaths by 2050. The research, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors (GBD) Tobacco Forecasting Collaborators, underscores the urgent need for accelerated efforts to end smoking worldwide.
The analysis indicates that, based on current trends, global life expectancy is projected to rise to 78.3 years by 2050, up from 73.6 years in 2022. However, if smoking rates decline to 5% by 2050, life expectancy could increase by an additional year for males and 0.2 years for females. More dramatically, if smoking were eliminated altogether from 2023 onwards, males could see an increase of up to 1.5 years, while females could gain 0.4 years.
Smoking remains a leading cause of preventable death globally, contributing to over 10% of deaths in 2021. While smoking rates have fallen significantly over the past three decades, the pace of decline has slowed in many countries, highlighting the need for robust public health interventions. The primary health issues linked to smoking include cancers, ischemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which together account for 85% of potentially avoidable years of life lost.
Professor Stein Emil Vollset, a senior author of the study from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), stated, “We must not lose momentum in efforts to reduce, and ultimately eliminate, smoking around the world. Our findings highlight that millions of premature deaths could be avoided by bringing an end to smoking.”
Using data from the GBD study, the authors modeled various scenarios to assess future health impacts. They forecasted the health burden across 204 countries from 2022 to 2050, focusing on the years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death. For instance, if smoking rates decline to 5%, it is estimated that there would be 876 million fewer YLLs compared to the most likely future scenario. Life expectancy is projected to reach 77.1 years for males and 80.8 years for females by 2050 under this scenario.
The study also examined regional variations in smoking prevalence. It found that while smoking rates among males have decreased from 40.8% in 1990 to 28.5% in 2022, estimates suggest that by 2050, 21.1% of males and 4.18% of females will still smoke, with significant regional disparities. For males, smoking rates could range from 3.18% in Brazil to 63.2% in Micronesia, while for females, rates could vary from 0.5% in Nigeria to 38.5% in Serbia.
The findings reveal that accelerated efforts to eliminate smoking could lead to substantial increases in life expectancy, especially in regions such as East Asia, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia for males, and high-income North America and Oceania for females. In a scenario where smoking is eradicated globally in 2023, an estimated 2.04 billion YLLs could be avoided by 2050.
While the study provides a comprehensive look at the health impacts of smoking, the authors acknowledge some limitations, such as not accounting for the potential health effects of e-cigarettes or the benefits of reduced exposure to second-hand smoke.
In conclusion, the study emphasizes the critical need for continued public health efforts to reduce tobacco smoking, suggesting that achieving a smoking prevalence of 5% could significantly enhance global health outcomes and longevity in the coming decades.
For further details, refer to the original study: “Forecasting the effects of smoking prevalence scenarios on years of life lost and life expectancy from 2022 to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,” published in The Lancet Public Health (2024). DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(24)00166-X.
