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A landmark study from the University of Surrey has found that Brexit contributed to 1,485 additional deaths annually in English NHS hospitals over the three years following the 2016 EU referendum, driven by a sharp decline in EU nurses working in the UK. The research, published as an IZA Discussion Paper, highlights the critical role of skilled migrant nurses in maintaining hospital care quality and warns of systemic risks from over-reliance on foreign-trained staff.
Key Findings
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Mortality Surge: Hospitals with higher pre-referendum EU nurse shares (averaging 5.84% but ranging up to 22%) saw 34 extra deaths per hospital attributed to post-Brexit workforce disruptions.
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Workforce Shifts: After the referendum, EU nurse inflows plummeted, while non-EU overseas hires surged. New hires were often less experienced, evidenced by lower starting salaries.
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Care Quality Decline: The loss of skilled EU nurses directly correlated with increased unplanned emergency readmissions and preventable in-hospital deaths, particularly in emergency care.
Expert Analysis
Professor Giuseppe Moscelli, lead investigator, stated:
“Brexit has had real life-or-death consequences. Our data shows that replacing experienced EU nurses with less-skilled alternatives weakened the NHS’s ability to deliver critical care, especially in high-pressure environments like emergency wards.”
The study analyzed 131 NHS hospitals, ruling out alternative explanations such as patient demographics, consultant staffing, or bed occupancy rates.
Policy Implications
The findings underscore the NHS’s heavy reliance on foreign-trained nurses and call for urgent reforms to:
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Boost Domestic Training: Expand programs to reduce dependency on overseas recruitment.
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Retain Skilled Staff: Improve working conditions and career pathways to prevent attrition.
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Reassess Immigration Policies: Ensure visa systems prioritize healthcare expertise without bureaucratic barriers.
Disclaimer
This article summarizes findings from a peer-reviewed study published by the University of Surrey and the IZA Institute of Labor Economics. Individual hospital outcomes may vary based on local staffing and resource allocation. The estimated mortality figures are derived from statistical modeling and do not represent direct patient-level attributions. Readers are encouraged to consult the full study (IZA DP No. 17797) for methodological details.
Source: University of Surrey via Medical Xpress
Full Study: Immigration, Workforce Composition, and Organizational Performance: The Effect of Brexit on NHS Hospital Quality (https://www.iza.org/publications/dp/17797)
Citation: Brexit has caused 1,485 additional deaths per year due to EU nurses leaving the UK (2025, April 30) retrieved 1 May 2025 from Medical Xpress.
Note: This article is intended for informational purposes and does not constitute medical or policy advice.
