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A recent study published in the Journal of Breast Imaging reveals that the decades-long decline in breast cancer mortality rates has halted for certain age groups. Researchers found that mortality rates have stopped decreasing for women older than 74, marking a significant shift in previous trends. Additionally, the study reconfirms that mortality rates for women younger than 40 have remained stagnant since 2010.
Key Findings of the Study
Breast cancer remains the second leading cause of cancer-related deaths among American women, with over 42,000 deaths reported in 2024. While mortality rates had been declining steadily since 1990—attributed to increased screening and advancements in treatment—the new research suggests that this progress has not been uniform across all age groups and ethnicities.
The study, conducted by Dr. Debra Monticciolo and Dr. R. Edward Hendrick, analyzed cancer mortality data maintained by the National Center for Health Statistics. The key findings include:
- Overall breast cancer mortality rates in U.S. women decreased by 43.5% between 1990 and 2022.
- The rate of decline has slowed to 1.23% per year since 2010, the lowest recorded drop since 1990.
- For women aged 20 to 39, mortality rates decreased by 2.79% per year from 1990 to 2010, but have remained unchanged since then.
- For women aged 75 and older, mortality rates decreased by 1.26% per year from 1993 to 2013, when the decline stopped.
Disparities Among Racial and Ethnic Groups
The research also highlights significant disparities in breast cancer mortality trends across racial and ethnic groups:
- Asian, Hispanic, and Native American women have experienced stagnation in mortality rate declines in recent years.
- Since 2009 for Asian women
- Since 2008 for Hispanic women
- Since 2005 for Native American women
- Black women continue to see declines in mortality rates across all age groups.
- The gap in mortality rates between Black and white women is particularly wide for women under 40, emphasizing the need for tailored risk assessment, screening, and treatment strategies for younger Black women.
Possible Causes and Health Policy Implications
Researchers suggest that the cessation of declining mortality rates in younger and older women is largely due to an increase in diagnoses of stage IV (metastatic) breast cancer, which has a five-year survival rate of only 31%. They indicate that current healthcare screening guidelines may contribute to this trend:
- While breast cancer risk assessments are recommended for all women by age 25, screening is typically reserved for women under 40 only if they are considered high-risk.
- Some medical guidelines advise against breast cancer screening for women over 74, potentially delaying diagnoses in this age group.
Dr. Monticciolo described the findings as concerning, stating, “The fact that breast cancer mortality rates have stopped declining for women over age 74 is an alarming new trend. This is in addition to women under age 40 no longer seeing mortality rates decline from breast cancer. These groups are exactly those discouraged from breast cancer screening by some U.S. guidelines.”
Conclusion
The study underscores the need for re-evaluating current breast cancer screening guidelines to address emerging mortality trends. Researchers emphasize the importance of further investigation into healthcare protocols and risk assessments to ensure that all women, particularly those in high-risk categories, receive timely and appropriate care.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute medical advice. Individuals concerned about breast cancer risk should consult with their healthcare provider for personalized recommendations.
