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A recent study led by researchers from the University of Santiago de Compostela and the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) highlights the potential impact of banning tobacco sales to young people. Published in The Lancet Public Health, the study projects that such a ban could prevent 1.2 million lung cancer deaths globally by 2095.
This groundbreaking simulation study—the first of its kind—suggests that prohibiting the sale of cigarettes and other tobacco products to individuals born between 2006 and 2010 could significantly reduce future lung cancer mortality across 185 countries.
A Tobacco-Free Generation
The research advocates for the creation of a tobacco-free generation, emphasizing the long-term benefits of reducing smoking-related deaths. Smoking is recognized as the leading cause of preventable deaths worldwide, accounting for over two-thirds of the 1.8 million annual lung cancer fatalities. Dr. Julia Rey Brandariz, an author of the study, stressed the urgency of implementing ambitious public health plans to tackle tobacco use. “Not only could this save huge numbers of lives, but it could also greatly alleviate the burden on health systems struggling to care for smoking-related illnesses,” she stated.
Legislative Challenges
Currently, no countries enforce laws banning the sale of tobacco to young people. Although New Zealand’s recent legislation aimed at banning sales to anyone born in or after 2009 was repealed, the study underlines the necessity for countries to consider similar measures. Most existing research has focused on the health benefits of such bans rather than their potential to reduce mortality rates.
Methodology and Findings
The researchers analyzed historical data from the WHO Mortality Database and projected future lung cancer death rates for individuals born between 2006 and 2010. Their findings suggest that if smoking is eradicated among this cohort, approximately 1.2 million lung cancer deaths could be prevented, accounting for 40.2% of expected lung cancer deaths in this group by 2095.
The study estimates that 45.8% of expected lung cancer deaths among men and 30.9% among women could be averted. Upper-middle-income countries would see the most significant reductions, particularly in Central and Eastern Europe, where 74.3% of potential deaths could be prevented.
The Global Landscape
Overall, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are projected to experience the majority of prevented deaths, with estimates suggesting that 65.1% of the 1.2 million lives saved would be in these regions. Dr. Isabelle Soerjomataram of the IARC emphasized the importance of targeting tobacco control efforts in LMICs, where smoking prevalence remains high and populations are younger.
Limitations and Considerations
While the study provides valuable insights, the authors acknowledge limitations, including the challenges of implementation and the influence of black market sales. The predictions were based on data from 82 countries, and estimates for other regions may vary due to limited available data. Additionally, the study did not account for the rise of e-cigarettes and their impact on smoking behaviors.
Conclusion
The findings of this study advocate for comprehensive tobacco control measures to protect future generations from the devastating effects of smoking. By prioritizing legislation that restricts tobacco sales to young people, countries can take significant strides toward reducing lung cancer mortality and promoting public health globally.
For more detailed information, refer to the original study published in The Lancet Public Health [here](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lan … (24)00185-3/fulltext).
