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Harvard-led research highlights long-term impacts of air pollution beyond health concerns
In a groundbreaking study, researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, and the European University of Rome have discovered a significant link between air pollution exposure during infancy and reduced economic mobility in adulthood. The findings, which focus on fine particulate matter (PM2.5), suggest that early exposure to environmental pollution can have lasting effects on economic outcomes, particularly in the Midwest and Southern regions of the United States.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on September 9, examined data from 1980 to 2010, covering 86% of U.S. census tracts. The researchers analyzed the economic mobility of individuals born between 1978 and 1983, assessing their average earnings in 2014-2015, when they were between the ages of 31 and 37.
At the core of the study was the concept of absolute upward mobility (AUM), which measures the mean income rank in adulthood of individuals born to families in the 25th percentile of the national income distribution. The researchers found a clear pattern: higher exposure to PM2.5 in infancy was associated with lower economic earnings later in life. On average, a one microgram per cubic meter (μg/m3) increase in PM2.5 exposure in 1982 corresponded to a 1.146% decrease in AUM by 2015.
“This study takes a big step toward filling the knowledge gap on the crucial link between environmental factors and long-term economic outcomes,” said Francesca Dominici, Clarence James Gamble Professor of Biostatistics, Population, and Data Science at Harvard Chan School and faculty director of the Harvard Data Science Initiative. “The findings suggest that air pollution can have lasting impacts beyond health effects — and that these impacts vary across regions and populations.”
The results were particularly pronounced in the Midwest and Southern United States, where the impact of PM2.5 exposure on economic mobility was disproportionately high. These regional variations highlight the need for tailored interventions to reduce air pollution and mitigate its socioeconomic effects.
“Our findings underscore the necessity of implementing stringent air quality standards nationally,” said Luca Merlo, co-lead author and researcher at the European University of Rome. “They also suggest the necessity of locally tailored interventions to mitigate air pollution and of integrated policies that address both environmental and economic inequalities.”
The study utilized advanced causal inference methods to control for socioeconomic and demographic factors, building upon previous research that explored the relationship between PM2.5 exposure and economic opportunity. By incorporating more granular data and robust analytical techniques, the study offers compelling evidence of the long-term effects of air pollution on economic mobility.
The research was co-led by Sophie-An Kingsbury Lee, a student at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, and was funded by multiple grants from the National Institutes of Health and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.
The findings of this study add to the growing body of evidence that environmental factors, such as air pollution, can have profound and lasting consequences beyond immediate health concerns. The call for stricter air quality standards and region-specific policies reflects the broader understanding that environmental and economic inequalities are deeply intertwined, and addressing one requires action on the other.
As policymakers continue to grapple with climate change and pollution, this research provides a critical perspective on the long-term economic costs of failing to protect vulnerable populations from harmful environmental exposures.
