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In a recent study published in The Lancet Public Health, researchers analyzed life expectancy trends in European countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their findings highlight a concerning stagnation in life expectancy gains since 2011, exacerbated further by the pandemic. However, certain nations, including Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Ireland, managed to sustain or even improve life expectancy despite these challenges.
The Historical Trend of Life Expectancy
Life expectancy has traditionally been an important indicator of a population’s overall health. Since the early 1900s, improvements in nutrition, infant mortality rates, infectious disease control, and living standards have contributed to steady increases in life expectancy across high-income nations. However, data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 suggests that these gains began to slow after 2011 for most European countries, except Norway.
COVID-19’s Impact on Life Expectancy
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant drop in life expectancy across Europe, as high mortality rates and overwhelmed healthcare systems took a toll on populations. While some countries, including the UK and Greece, suffered sharp declines, others maintained relative stability. Ireland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark saw only minor changes in life expectancy, suggesting that certain health policies played a role in mitigating the pandemic’s effects.
Key Findings from the Study
Researchers examined life expectancy trends in 16 founding European Economic Area (EEA) nations and four UK nations over three distinct periods: 1990-2011, 2011-2019, and 2019-2021. They found that:
- From 1990-2011, life expectancy improved steadily across all countries.
- Between 2011-2019, the rate of improvement slowed, with England experiencing the most significant reduction in progress.
- From 2019-2021, many countries saw life expectancy decline due to COVID-19, though Nordic countries and Ireland fared better than others.
Why Some Countries Maintained Gains
A major factor in life expectancy improvements before 2011 was the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and neoplasms (cancers). Countries that sustained these reductions beyond 2011, such as Sweden, Belgium, Norway, and Denmark, also saw better life expectancy trends during the pandemic.
In contrast, nations like the UK, Italy, and Greece, which experienced significant slowdowns in life expectancy gains before COVID-19, faced the largest declines between 2019 and 2021. Notably, while Ireland and Sweden recorded high COVID-19-related deaths, their overall life expectancy remained stable due to continued reductions in deaths from CVDs and cancers.
Risk Factors and Policy Implications
The study identified several key risk factors affecting life expectancy:
- Smoking rates have steadily declined in all countries.
- High body mass index (BMI) has been rising steadily.
- Progress in controlling high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and LDL cholesterol stalled or reversed after 2011.
- Dietary risks and low physical activity remain persistent challenges.
Countries that implemented strong public health measures saw better outcomes. For instance, Norway’s fiscal policies reduced sugar consumption, while Belgium’s National Cancer Plan prioritized early detection and treatment. In contrast, public health funding cuts in the UK after 2010 likely contributed to stagnating life expectancy gains.
Looking Ahead
The study underscores the importance of long-term policy interventions in shaping population health. Proactive public health policies, such as improving dietary habits, expanding healthcare access, and addressing environmental risks, can play a crucial role in extending life expectancy and building resilience against future health crises.
Disclaimer
This article is based on research published in The Lancet Public Health and aims to provide a summary of findings on life expectancy trends in Europe. Readers should consult the original study for detailed methodology and analysis. The information provided here does not constitute medical advice.
Journal Reference: Steel N, Bauer-Staeb CMM, Ford JA, et al. “Changing life expectancy in European countries 1990–2021: a subanalysis of causes and risk factors from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.” The Lancet Public Health, 2025. DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(25)00009-X, Full Text.
