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A recent study led by Monash University has examined the effects of school closures on COVID-19 outcomes across 74 countries, revealing varied results. The research, published in PLOS Medicine, suggests that while school closures helped reduce the spread of the virus and its severity in most countries, they also had unintended consequences in some regions.
The study, conducted by Dr. Romain Ragonnet and his team, employed a mathematical model to simulate the pandemic’s impact in 74 countries from 2020 to 2022. It compared scenarios where schools were closed to one where they remained open throughout the period. The analysis included key metrics such as infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.
The findings indicated that school closures were associated with significant reductions in COVID-19 infections, deaths, and peak hospital occupancy in most countries. Specifically, 58 countries (78%) saw a reduction in infections, 65 (87%) had fewer deaths, and 72 (97%) experienced less strain on hospitals.
In Australia, school closures were estimated to have lowered COVID-19 deaths by about 25%, with notable reductions in infections caused by the Delta variant. This was particularly significant as Australia had not yet achieved substantial vaccine coverage at the time.
However, the impact of school closures varied by region. While Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent saw substantial reductions in infections due to school closures, countries like the U.S. and many in Europe experienced minimal or even negative effects. In these regions, school closures did not notably reduce infections or deaths, with some estimates showing a less than 10% reduction in both.
The study also found that school closures in Central and South America contributed significantly to reducing peak hospital occupancy, while five African countries analyzed also benefited from the intervention in terms of infections and hospital strain.
Dr. Ragonnet emphasized the complex nature of the intervention. While it proved effective in many countries, in some cases, school closures may have increased cumulative mortality, highlighting the need for careful consideration of public health policies during pandemics. He also pointed out that such decisions must account for broader impacts, including effects on mental health, education, and the economy.
The study’s findings serve as a crucial reminder of the nuanced and context-dependent nature of public health interventions. Policymakers must weigh the benefits of such measures against potential long-term consequences, especially as future variants and changes in immunity might alter the effectiveness of similar strategies.
Disclaimer: This research focuses solely on the epidemiological effects of school closures on COVID-19 dynamics. The study does not address other significant factors such as the broader social, mental health, and economic impacts of school closures.
For more details, visit PLOS Medicine, DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004512.
