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In 2014, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić was selected 41st overall in the NBA Draft, during a Taco Bell commercial, a moment that left many wondering about the true decision-making process behind scouting athletes. Despite the seemingly unconventional circumstances, Jokić went on to become one of the NBA’s biggest stars, securing a championship and earning three MVP titles. His unexpected rise raises questions about how scouts and coaches make high-stakes decisions when selecting talent.
“It could be argued that one of the most difficult predictions a person makes is what another person’s future will look like,” says Kathryn Johnston, a senior research associate at the University of Toronto’s Faculty of Kinesiology & Physical Education (KPE).
To better understand the factors influencing these pivotal choices, Johnston, alongside Joseph Baker, a professor at KPE and the Tanenbaum Chair in Sport Science, Data Modelling, and Sport Analytics, set out to conduct an experiment on athlete selection.
Their study involved creating an online tool akin to a dating app, where 18 coaches were tasked with making mock selections for a hypothetical roster based on 15 athlete profiles. Each profile included photographs, anthropometric data (the measurements and proportions of the athletes’ bodies), and descriptions of their interests, abilities, and statistics.
The results, published in the Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology journal, revealed a slight preference for athletes labeled as hard workers over those perceived as natural talents. Coaches also showed a tendency to favor certain anthropometric qualities, as well as attributes such as passion, commitment to the sport, speed, and explosiveness.
Perhaps the most striking finding was the variation in approaches to defining success and talent. Nearly 18 different definitions of success were identified, with each coach valuing different aspects of the players’ profiles. While some prioritized profile pictures, others focused on birthdates or specific statistics.
“For some, profile pictures were critical; for others, it was the birthdate, etc.,” says Johnston, highlighting the personalized and subjective nature of the selection process.
The study’s findings shed light on the biases and preferences that influence athlete selection decisions, offering valuable insights for scouts, coaches, and other stakeholders. By better understanding these tendencies, the researchers aim to help participants align their approaches with organizational priorities and address any blind spots in their decision-making processes.
Looking ahead, Johnston and Baker plan to expand their research, testing selection behavior on a larger scale to see if coaches and scouts are making choices aligned with their stated preferences. They also intend to explore how subtle changes in language might impact selection outcomes.
“We hope to create adaptations of this experiment to better understand how subtle language changes might actually influence selection behavior,” Johnston explains.
Disclaimer: The findings of this research are based on a pilot study conducted by Kathryn Johnston, Joseph Baker, and their team. The study’s conclusions are not meant to generalize all scout behavior or decision-making processes across sports and organizations. Further research is required to confirm these findings and their applicability to broader contexts.
