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As the global climate continues to heat up, a new study warns of the devastating effects on Europe’s population. According to the research published in Nature Medicine, extreme temperatures—particularly heat—are projected to lead to as many as 2.3 million additional deaths in Europe by the end of this century, unless significant efforts are made to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to hotter conditions.
Currently, cold temperatures claim more lives in Europe than heat, but a team from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, led by environmental epidemiologist Pierre Masselot, conducted climate simulations across 854 cities. They found that while cold-related deaths decrease gradually, heat-related deaths are expected to increase at a much faster rate.
The Mediterranean region, including Italy, southern Spain, and Greece, is projected to see a significant rise in heat-related deaths due to climate change. On the other hand, much of Scandinavia and the United Kingdom will experience fewer temperature-related fatalities, primarily due to the reduction in cold-related deaths as temperatures moderate. However, even in the most optimistic scenarios, with aggressive carbon emission reductions and increased adaptation strategies like air conditioning, there is still a net increase in temperature-related deaths.
“The Mediterranean is a so-called climate hotspot,” Masselot explained. “It’s a region that is warming much quicker than the rest of the world, and Malta is right in the middle of it.”
The study specifically predicts a dramatic rise in Malta’s temperature-related death rate, which is expected to increase by 269 deaths per 100,000 residents by the end of the century. In contrast, Ireland’s temperature-related death rate will decrease slightly by 15 deaths per 100,000. In general, wealthier Western European countries are projected to fare better than their Eastern counterparts, according to the study.
Several heatwaves in recent years have already claimed thousands of lives in Europe, with the deadliest being the 2003 heatwave, which resulted in around 70,000 deaths. Future projections are even more alarming. Cities like Barcelona, Rome, and Naples are expected to see significant increases in temperature-related fatalities. For example, Barcelona could experience nearly a quarter million additional deaths, while Rome and Naples could each see close to 150,000 extra deaths due to heat.
In scenarios where carbon pollution is only slightly worse than current trends and no additional adaptation measures are taken, the study predicts over 5.8 million excess heat-related deaths by the end of the century. However, it also notes that nearly 3.5 million fewer cold-related deaths will occur.
The study’s methodology was praised for isolating the impact of climate change from other factors, such as Europe’s aging population, which makes the findings even more significant. “This very much lines up with what we would expect,” said Dr. Courtney Howard, a Canadian emergency room physician and vice chair of the Global Climate and Health Alliance. “Heat stress and heat stroke are a major concern, especially for older individuals who lack air conditioning.”
Masselot emphasized the need for major adaptations to reduce the projected death toll, particularly in areas with older housing stock and limited access to air conditioning. Europe, with its aging infrastructure, requires substantial investments in cooling solutions, such as central air systems, more green spaces, and cooling centers, to protect its most vulnerable populations.
The study highlights the urgency of climate action to prevent the catastrophic consequences of rising temperatures. As the planet warms, the health risks posed by extreme heat will only intensify unless Europe significantly adapts its infrastructure and mitigates carbon emissions.
Disclaimer: This article summarizes the findings of the study “Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities” by Pierre Masselot, published in Nature Medicine (2025). The projections presented are based on a range of climate and demographic scenarios and may be subject to change as new data becomes available.
