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Five years after COVID-19 swept across the globe, an unsettling question persists: Is the world prepared for the next pandemic? While substantial efforts have been made to strengthen defenses, experts agree that much work remains before we can confidently say we are ready for the next global health crisis.
The World Health Organization’s Assessment
The World Health Organization (WHO) has been at the forefront of efforts to assess pandemic preparedness and response. According to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the world is better equipped than it was during the early days of COVID-19, but he stressed that significant vulnerabilities remain. “If the next pandemic arrived today, the world would still face some of the same weaknesses and vulnerabilities,” he warned.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s director for epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention, echoed this sentiment, noting that while improvements have been made since the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, we are not fully prepared for another infectious disease outbreak. “It’s a matter of when, not if,” she said.
A Critical View from Experts
The Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Response, created by the WHO, delivered a blunt assessment, stating that by 2025, the world will still be ill-prepared to handle a future pandemic. One of the panel’s key concerns is the ongoing inequality in access to funding and crucial pandemic-fighting tools, such as vaccines.
Virologist Marion Koopmans from the Netherlands highlighted the success of mRNA vaccine technology during COVID-19, describing it as a “game changer.” However, she cautioned that rising vaccine hesitancy, fueled by widespread misinformation, could pose significant challenges in the event of another pandemic.
Epidemiologist Meg Schaeffer, who works at the US-based SAS Institute, expressed similar concerns, stating that it would take public health agencies another four to five years to upgrade systems to detect and share information more rapidly. “No, I don’t think that we’re any more prepared than we were with COVID,” Schaeffer noted, though she added that society now understands the steps necessary to protect one another through measures like social distancing, facemasks, and limiting travel.
Mitigation Efforts and Collaborative Initiatives
In an effort to bolster preparedness, several initiatives have been established to mitigate the effects of future pandemics. The WHO’s Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence in Berlin works on improving collaborative surveillance to detect emerging threats more quickly. Additionally, the World Bank’s Pandemic Fund has distributed $885 million in grants since 2022 to support nearly 50 projects across 75 countries.
To enhance vaccine production, a technology transfer hub for mRNA vaccines was set up in South Africa, and a Global Training Hub for Bio-manufacturing was established in South Korea.
New Global Alarm System
In response to the delayed international reaction during COVID-19, the WHO has updated its health regulations to include a new, higher-level “pandemic emergency” alarm, requiring countries to act rapidly and in coordination when faced with a potential pandemic. This amendment aims to avoid the slow response that characterized the early days of COVID-19, when the WHO declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30, 2020, but countries didn’t mobilize until March 11, when the virus was officially declared a pandemic.
Pandemic Treaty Negotiations
To ensure a more coordinated global response in the future, countries have been negotiating a pandemic treaty since December 2021. The goal is to create a binding framework for pandemic prevention, preparedness, and response. However, negotiations have been complicated by differences between Western countries, which have strong pharmaceutical industries, and poorer nations, which fear being left behind once again. A key issue is the obligation to share emerging pathogens and the benefits derived from them, such as vaccines. The deadline for reaching a final agreement has been extended to May 2025.
Identifying Future Threats
Experts are also focused on identifying where the next pandemic might originate. Virologist Tom Peacock from Imperial College London warned that the possibility of an H5N1 bird flu pandemic should be taken “very seriously.” In response, the WHO assembled a team of more than 200 independent scientists to evaluate over 1,600 pathogens, prioritizing those that could pose a significant risk to public health. Among the identified threats are COVID-19, Ebola, Marburg, and Zika viruses, along with “Disease X”—a placeholder for an unknown pathogen that could emerge in the future.
In conclusion, while progress has been made in pandemic preparedness, there is still much work to be done. As the world remains vulnerable to the next infectious disease threat, global collaboration, enhanced surveillance, and rapid response systems will be key in ensuring a better outcome in the event of another pandemic.
