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A new study from Northern Arizona University (NAU) has issued a stark warning about the growing threat of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, predicting a catastrophic surge in infection-related deaths in the coming decades. The research, led by senior research scientist Benjamin Koch, highlights the urgent need for global action to combat antibiotic resistance before it spirals out of control.
The study, published in Communications Medicine, presents a chilling scenario in which the rise of pan-resistant bacteria—pathogens resistant to all known antibiotics—could significantly escalate public health crises. Koch, who is the lead author, stated that the question is no longer if this will happen, but when.
“As the use of antibiotics has surged worldwide, bacteria have evolved resistance to an increasing number of antibiotics,” said Koch. “This research underscores the alarming speed at which this problem could worsen, potentially leading to a dramatic spike in mortality rates.”
Multidrug-resistant bacteria, or those resistant to several classes of antibiotics, are already a pressing concern. However, the study warns that once a pathogen gains resistance to all known antibiotics—a phenomenon known as pan-resistance—the public health impacts could shift from a gradual increase to a sharp, catastrophic rise in death rates.
The team behind the research, including NAU’s Ecoss Director Bruce Hungate, alongside researchers from the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University and the University of Minnesota, modeled the potential effects of a hypothetical pan-resistant strain of E. coli on sepsis-related deaths in the United States. The results were sobering: within just five years of the introduction of such a strain, sepsis deaths could surge by 18 to 46 times, depending on the severity of the strain’s resistance.
While this particular strain has not yet emerged, the researchers emphasized that the rapid evolution of antibiotic resistance makes its arrival inevitable—though they caution that predicting its exact timing is impossible.
“We can’t say whether this will happen in a year or a century,” Koch explained. “But the data suggests that it’s coming, and we are woefully unprepared for its potential impact.”
The study paints a grim picture of the future, especially for high-income countries where the healthcare system currently provides more access to antibiotics and advanced treatments. Pan-resistant bacteria, however, would erase these advantages, meaning that even in wealthier nations, formerly treatable infections could become fatal.
The implications are global, and experts stress the need for coordinated action. Koch and his colleagues called for stronger government policies to regulate the use of antibiotics in both healthcare and the food industry. Additionally, they urged increased investment in the development of new antibiotics, a field that has slowed to a standstill in recent years.
On a personal level, Koch advised that individuals should take antibiotics only when prescribed by a healthcare provider and support policies that promote responsible antibiotic use and the development of new treatments.
“We must reduce the forces that currently promote the evolution and spread of antibiotic-resistant pathogens,” the study concludes. “This means improving antibiotic stewardship in both human and veterinary medicine and in food-animal production.”
As the global fight against antibiotic resistance intensifies, experts stress that time is running out to take action before we face a future where even the most routine infections become deadly.
For more information, see the full study: Benjamin J. Koch et al., “Predicting Sepsis Mortality into an Era of Pandrug-Resistant E. coli through Modeling,” Communications Medicine (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s43856-024-00693-7.
