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A new study published in The Lancet paints a dire picture of obesity in the United States, forecasting that more than 80% of adults and nearly 60% of adolescents will be classified as overweight or obese by 2050. The findings come from an extensive analysis of body mass index (BMI) data, drawing on 132 sources of health data across the U.S. and spanning from 1990 to 2021.
According to the study, which synthesizes national and state-level surveys, nearly half of all adolescents and three-quarters of adults in the U.S. were classified as overweight or obese in 2021. This marks a more than doubling of obesity rates since 1990. The forecasted trajectory shows that, without urgent intervention, these rates are likely to keep climbing, with alarming consequences for public health.
The study defines obesity as a BMI of 30 kg/m² or higher for adults, and overweight as a BMI between 25 kg/m² and 30 kg/m². For adolescents, the classification follows the International Obesity Task Force criteria. The study was conducted by the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 U.S. Obesity Forecasting Collaborator Group, a team of over 300 experts in obesity research.
Why It Matters
Obesity is already one of the leading public health challenges in the U.S., contributing to a range of chronic conditions including diabetes, heart disease, stroke, cancer, and mental health disorders. The economic toll is equally staggering. A 2024 report from the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee predicts that obesity-related healthcare costs will soar to $9.1 trillion over the next decade.
In 2021, the study estimates that 208 million Americans were classified as overweight or obese, a concerning statistic that has significant implications for life expectancy and health outcomes. Obesity has been shown to hinder health improvements and decrease life expectancy in the U.S. compared to other high-income nations. In fact, research has linked obesity to 335,000 deaths in 2021 alone.
The rise in childhood and adolescent obesity is especially troubling. Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey reveals that nearly 20% of children and adolescents between the ages of 2 and 19 are living with obesity. The rate of obesity has more than doubled among adolescents aged 15 to 24 since 1990, and by 2050, the study predicts that 1 in 5 children and 1 in 3 adolescents will be affected.
This shift not only increases the risk of chronic disease but also impacts mental health, social functioning, and physical well-being from an early age.
Geographical and Socioeconomic Disparities
The study also highlights substantial geographical disparities, with southern U.S. states seeing some of the highest obesity rates. Further research has shown that obesity is disproportionately prevalent among Black and Hispanic populations, driven by systemic barriers including economic inequalities, discrimination, and unequal access to education and healthcare.
Current and Future Research
While the situation remains alarming, researchers are actively exploring solutions. A recent study in Seattle demonstrated that taxing sugary beverages led to a reduction in children’s BMI, showing the potential for policy-driven solutions. Other initiatives are focusing on improving access to healthy food and physical activity, particularly in underserved areas.
Research is also increasingly focused on new medical treatments. Anti-obesity medications are being investigated, and their effectiveness and long-term impacts are closely monitored. Additionally, technology-driven interventions, such as mobile health apps, are being studied for their potential to help individuals manage weight, although challenges remain in making these programs scalable.
Looking ahead, the study underscores the urgent need for comprehensive action. With new-generation anti-obesity medications on the horizon, there is hope for significant changes in the management of obesity. However, the success of these treatments will depend on factors such as cost, accessibility, and long-term efficacy.
Conclusion
As the U.S. faces an obesity epidemic of unprecedented scale, the coming decades will be critical in determining the health trajectory of the nation. With effective interventions, the forecasted rise in obesity rates could be mitigated, but without action, the impacts on health and the economy could be devastating. The study calls for urgent efforts to address the root causes of obesity and to implement solutions that promote healthier lifestyles for future generations.
For more information, see the full study published in The Lancet.
