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A new study projects that over 740 million children and teenagers worldwide will be short-sighted (myopic) by 2050, as myopia continues to rise globally. Published in the British Journal of Ophthalmology, the analysis draws attention to the growing public health concern, with around one in three young people currently affected. This comprehensive study, which included data from 50 countries, highlights key factors driving the increase in myopia, including gender, geography, and education level.
A Surge in Myopia Cases
The study pooled data from 276 research papers and reports, involving over 5.4 million children and teenagers, to estimate current and future trends. Between 1990 and 2023, global myopia prevalence in children and teens rose sharply, tripling from 24% in the 1990s to 36% by 2023. The researchers observed the steepest rise in myopia among adolescents, where prevalence soared to 54% between 2020 and 2023.
The trend is particularly concerning in low- and middle-income countries, where prevalence rates are generally higher. East Asia, in particular, showed the highest levels of myopia, with an estimated 35% of children and teens affected. Countries like Japan reported the highest rates, while Paraguay had the lowest. Urban living, female sex, and higher education levels were also associated with an elevated risk of myopia.
Projections for the Future
The study forecasts that myopia rates will continue to climb, with global prevalence expected to reach 40% by 2050. This would translate to over 740 million cases, up from 600 million in 2030. The increase is expected to be particularly pronounced among girls and young women, who will experience higher prevalence rates compared to boys and young men by 2050—42% versus 37.5%.
Teens aged 13-19 are likely to bear the brunt of the myopia epidemic, with rates projected to reach 52.5% by 2050, compared to 27.5% among younger children aged 6-12. The projections also indicate that Asia will continue to experience the highest myopia rates, with the prevalence rising from 52% in 2030 to a staggering 69% by 2050.
Potential Impact of COVID-19
The researchers suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic may have accelerated the rise in myopia after 2020. They cite emerging evidence linking increased screen time and reduced outdoor activity during lockdowns to deteriorating vision in children and teens. The pandemic’s impact on lifestyle changes, particularly for children confined indoors, may have contributed to the sharp rise in myopia prevalence.
Why Is Myopia Rising?
The study offers insights into why myopia rates vary so widely between regions. Rapid economic development in East and South Asia, combined with earlier and more intense academic pressures, could explain the higher prevalence of myopia in these areas. Early exposure to formal education, which often involves close-up work, is thought to contribute to the steep rise in myopia among children in these regions.
In contrast, African countries tend to have lower rates of myopia, possibly due to later school enrollment and less intensive educational demands during early childhood. Lower literacy rates and less screen time are likely protective factors for vision in these populations.
Addressing the Growing Myopia Epidemic
To combat this growing health challenge, the researchers advocate for public health interventions that encourage children to spend more time outdoors and engage in physical activity. Reducing screen time and increasing exposure to natural light could help slow the progression of myopia, particularly among young children. They also suggest that the differences in myopia rates between boys and girls may be linked to lifestyle factors, such as the tendency for girls to engage in more close-up work and less outdoor play than boys.
A Call to Action
The study’s authors acknowledge the limitations of their analysis, noting that the quality and methodology of the studies they reviewed varied. Nonetheless, they believe their findings reflect the growing myopia burden and stress the need for global health policies that address this issue. As myopia becomes more widespread, it may place a significant burden on healthcare systems, particularly in countries where prevalence is expected to surge.
The study concludes with a stark warning: without urgent intervention, myopia could become a global health crisis in the coming decades.
