0
0
March 22, 2024
A recent study published in The Lancet journal reveals a significant decline in India’s fertility rate over the past seven decades, mirroring global trends. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in India, which stood at nearly 6.2 children per woman in 1950, has dropped to just under 2 in 2021. Projections indicate a further decline to 1.29 and 1.04 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.
The study, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, underscores a global phenomenon where fertility rates have plummeted from over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021. These figures are projected to decrease to 1.8 and 1.6 in 2050 and 2100, respectively.
In 2021, the world witnessed 12.9 crore live births, marking an increase from roughly 9.3 crore in 1950 but a decline from the peak of 14.2 crore in 2016. India alone accounted for more than 1.6 crore and over 2.2 crore live births in 1950 and 2021, respectively, with projections indicating a decrease to 1.3 crore by 2050.
While much of the world grapples with declining fertility rates, low-income countries continue to face high fertility challenges, particularly in regions of western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa. The researchers predict a demographic divide, with low-income countries’ share in global live births nearly doubling from 18 percent to 35 percent by 2100.
Furthermore, as climate change exacerbates, high-fertility low-income countries are expected to endure more frequent natural disasters, posing threats to food, water, and resource security, along with increased risks of heat-related illnesses and mortality.
The implications of these findings extend beyond demographics, impacting economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment. The researchers emphasize the urgent need for governments to address the challenges posed by an ageing population, stressing national health insurance, social security programs, and healthcare infrastructure.
Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of Population Foundation of India (PFI), underscores the profound implications of these findings for India. Challenges such as an ageing population, labour force shortages, and potential social imbalances due to gender preferences necessitate comprehensive policy measures to mitigate future impacts.
“Economic policies stimulating growth and job creation, alongside social security and pension reforms, will also be essential in adapting to and mitigating the impacts of declining fertility rates,” Muttreja asserts.
The study underscores the need for proactive measures to address the evolving demographic landscape, emphasizing the importance of education and contraceptive access in shaping future population dynamics.
The findings serve as a call to action for policymakers to navigate the complex challenges posed by shifting fertility patterns, ensuring sustainable development and equitable growth in the years to come.
