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Recent research conducted at the University of New South Wales, Australia, has shed new light on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that it is more probable to have arisen from an unnatural source rather than occurring naturally. Utilizing a modified version of the Grunow-Finke Tool (mGFT), originally designed to differentiate between natural epidemics and deliberate biological attacks, the study aimed to analyze the likelihood of the pandemic’s origin.
The mGFT, typically used for smaller outbreaks, was adapted by researchers to evaluate various criteria characterizing the pandemic, including its intensity, dynamics, geographic spread, unusual strain of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, and clinical symptoms experienced. By assigning points to each criterion based on available evidence from literature and public data sources like Our World in Data, the researchers were able to compute a final score indicating the probability of the pandemic’s origin.
Key factors such as the biological risk associated with ongoing bat virus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, the presence of an unusual strain of the virus, and the intensity and dynamics of the pandemic were assigned higher points, reflecting their significance in the analysis. After calculating the final score, which totaled 41 out of 60 points, the researchers concluded that there is a higher probability of COVID-19 originating unnaturally, with a focus on lab accidents or leaks as a potential source.
While this marks the first time the mGFT tool has been used in the context of a pandemic, the researchers emphasize the need for further testing and refinement. They acknowledge that certain criteria, such as pandemic intensity and rapid spread, may contribute to higher overall scores favoring unnatural origins. To mitigate subjectivity in scoring, the team’s results were reviewed by two additional experts.
In their study, the authors highlight the importance of considering various factors beyond traditional virology and medical evidence when investigating the origins of epidemics. They argue that incorporating intelligence from diverse sources is essential for identifying potential unnatural causes of outbreaks.
“The debate about the origins of SARS-CoV-2 has been focused largely on medical evidence but not on other intelligence, which is key to identifying unnatural epidemics,” the authors wrote in their study.
The findings of this research provide valuable insights into the complex nature of the COVID-19 pandemic’s origins and underscore the need for continued investigation and vigilance in preventing future outbreaks of this nature.
